Andy's recent series on under-appreciated players left me wondering if there was a systematic way to find under and overrated players. In theory if we would could compare every player's perceived value to his actual value, we would have the information we need to do a complete evaluation of the players whose value and reputation we worlds apart. Fortunately Baseball-Reference.com has both objective and subjective rankings.
WAR is the Baseball-Reference.com attempt to use a single value to rate each player. All aspects of the game are taken into account and there is no room for opinion or popularity in creating these rankings. It is completely objective.
Conversely, the EloRater from that site is subjective. Readers are asked to compare two players and determine who was better. The results of all votes are then combined to create a list of greatest players. While player stats are used in this process clearly the results of these comparisons are based on perceptions and reflect the regard in which players are held.
Comparing these two numbers, would then provide us with the information we are looking for. Players who do much better in the EloRater then their WAR would suggest are overrated, while those who do much worse would be underrated.
For example, as of this writing Joe Carter has earned 1873 points in the EloRater, which is the 279th best among retired position players. Meanwhile his career WAR is 16.5 which is the 822nd best. This tells us that he is ranked 279-822= 543 places above where he should be, which is quite an overrating of his value.
In fact, Carter is the 6th most overrated retired position player in baseball history.
Using this method, here are the most overrated position players of all-time.
(Elo Scores are from 2:50 PM on 1/15/12, active players were eliminated from both rankings):
Player | Elo | Elo Rank | WAR | WAR Rank | Elo-WAR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dante Bichette | 1508 | 644 | 2 | 1453 | -809 | |
Bill Buckner | 1892 | 266 | 12.1 | 1069 | -803 | |
Kid Gleason | 1616 | 514 | 8.4 | 1274 | -760 | |
Eric Karros | 1520 | 629 | 9 | 1256 | -627 | |
Doc Cramer | 1422 | 764 | 5.4 | 1366 | -602 | |
Joe Carter | 1873 | 279 | 16.5 | 822 | -543 | |
Don Kessinger | 1358 | 840 | 5 | 1378 | -538 | |
J.T. Snow | 1495 | 663 | 10 | 1192 | -529 | |
Willie Montanez | 1284 | 965 | 0 | 1491 | -526 | |
Ralph Garr | 1496 | 660 | 10.4 | 1172 | -512 | |
Cookie Rojas | 1321 | 903 | 4 | 1404 | -501 | |
Lou Piniella | 1536 | 606 | 11.4 | 1098 | -492 | |
Ruben Sierra | 1654 | 476 | 13.6 | 965 | -489 | |
Keith Moreland | 1266 | 997 | 2.4 | 1449 | -452 | |
Bengie Molina | 1356 | 845 | 8 | 1291 | -446 | |
Jose Guillen | 1274 | 980 | 3.6 | 1415 | -435 | |
DeRon Johnson | 1297 | 944 | 5.1 | 1372 | -428 | |
Shawon Dunston | 1409 | 783 | 10 | 1192 | -409 | |
Gus Zernial | 1403 | 792 | 10 | 1192 | -400 |
That's quite a mix of players, but many of the names on the certainly won't surprise anyone. To make these numbers more digestible, lets break down the numbers by seasons in which a player debuted.
1980-2011 (Retired Players Only)
Player | Elo | Elo Rank | WAR | WAR Rank | Elo-WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dante Bichette | 1508 | 644 | 2 | 1453 | -809 |
Eric Karros | 1520 | 629 | 9 | 1256 | -627 |
Joe Carter | 1873 | 279 | 16.5 | 822 | -543 |
J.T. Snow | 1495 | 663 | 10 | 1192 | -529 |
Ruben Sierra | 1654 | 476 | 13.6 | 965 | -489 |
Bengie Molina | 1356 | 845 | 8 | 1291 | -446 |
Jose Guillen | 1274 | 980 | 3.6 | 1415 | -435 |
Shawon Dunston | 1409 | 783 | 10 | 1192 | -409 |
Juan Samuel | 1557 | 586 | 13.6 | 965 | -379 |
Vinny Castilla | 1675 | 463 | 16.4 | 829 | -366 |
1960-1979
Player | Elo | Elo Rank | WAR | WAR Rank | Elo-WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bill Buckner | 1892 | 266 | 12.1 | 1069 | -803 |
Don Kessinger | 1358 | 840 | 5 | 1378 | -538 |
Willie Montanez | 1284 | 965 | 0 | 1491 | -526 |
Ralph Garr | 1496 | 660 | 10.4 | 1172 | -512 |
Cookie Rojas | 1321 | 903 | 4 | 1404 | -501 |
Lou Piniella | 1536 | 606 | 11.4 | 1098 | -492 |
Keith Moreland | 1266 | 997 | 2.4 | 1449 | -452 |
DeRon Johnson | 1297 | 944 | 5.1 | 1372 | -428 |
Jorge Orta | 1402 | 793 | 10.1 | 1185 | -392 |
Larry Parrish | 1567 | 576 | 13.9 | 945 | -369 |
1940-1959
Player | Elo | Elo Rank | WAR | WAR Rank | Elo-WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gus Zernial | 1403 | 792 | 10 | 1192 | -400 |
Gus Bell | 1594 | 544 | 14.3 | 923 | -379 |
Frank Thomas (1) | 1689 | 455 | 16.7 | 812 | -357 |
Tommy Davis | 1742 | 402 | 18.3 | 744 | -342 |
Dick Stuart | 1260 | 1010 | 6.1 | 1351 | -341 |
Walt Dropo | 1178 | 1158 | 2.5 | 1447 | -289 |
Bobby Richardson | 1215 | 1083 | 5.6 | 1364 | -281 |
Zoilo Versalles | 1347 | 859 | 11 | 1131 | -272 |
Vic Power | 1492 | 668 | 14.2 | 927 | -259 |
Dave Philley | 1192 | 1135 | 4.4 | 1393 | -258 |
1920-1939
Player | Elo | Elo Rank | WAR | WAR Rank | Elo-WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Doc Cramer | 1422 | 764 | 5.4 | 1366 | -602 |
Luke Sewell | 1207 | 1099 | 1.3 | 1469 | -370 |
Jimmie Wilson | 1328 | 893 | 9.4 | 1230 | -337 |
Roy Johnson | 1495 | 663 | 13.8 | 951 | -288 |
Lloyd Waner | 1868 | 285 | 24.3 | 560 | -275 |
Rip Radcliff | 1209 | 1096 | 5.8 | 1360 | -264 |
Bob Meusel | 1834 | 310 | 23.9 | 572 | -262 |
Pete Fox | 1452 | 724 | 13.5 | 973 | -249 |
Sam Chapman | 1516 | 632 | 15.1 | 879 | -247 |
Al Lopez | 1425 | 759 | 13.5 | 973 | -214 |
1901-1919
Player | Elo | Elo Rank | WAR | WAR Rank | Elo-WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charlie Grimm | 1366 | 828 | 9.5 | 1226 | -398 |
Jack Tobin | 1571 | 570 | 15.4 | 866 | -296 |
Shano Collins | 1266 | 997 | 8.7 | 1260 | -263 |
Tommy Griffith | 1201 | 1107 | 5.7 | 1362 | -255 |
Lefty O'Doul | 1883 | 271 | 26 | 504 | -233 |
Hi Myers | 1226 | 1071 | 8 | 1291 | -220 |
Bill Wambsganss | 1120 | 1270 | 0.8 | 1478 | -208 |
High Pockets Kelly | 1790 | 358 | 24.3 | 560 | -202 |
Baby Doll Jacobson | 1701 | 439 | 22.4 | 626 | -187 |
Bucky Harris | 1356 | 845 | 12.8 | 1022 | -177 |
1871-1900
Player | Elo | Elo Rank | WAR | WAR Rank | Elo-WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kid Gleason | 1616 | 514 | 8.4 | 1274 | -760 |
Bill Hallman | 1201 | 1107 | 4.9 | 1383 | -276 |
Charlie Comiskey | 1342 | 866 | 11 | 1131 | -265 |
Joe Quinn | 1143 | 1223 | 1.6 | 1465 | -242 |
Wilbert Robinson | 1386 | 810 | 12.3 | 1052 | -242 |
Jack O'Connor | 1214 | 1084 | 7.8 | 1300 | -216 |
Tom Brown | 1360 | 835 | 13.3 | 991 | -156 |
Chicken Wolf | 1326 | 896 | 12.6 | 1033 | -137 |
Tommy McCarthy | 1545 | 593 | 19 | 723 | -130 |
Dave Foutz | 1516 | 632 | 18.1 | 754 | -122 |
I don't have time to comment on all of these players, but would be interested in hearing what you think. Has the system worked and helped us isolate overrated players, or is there something lacking? What adjustments can be made to improve what we are doing?
Tomorrow we'll use the same system to look at the underrated position players and then we'll switch to the pitchers.
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