We have moved to our new permanent home at HighHeatStats.com!

All existing content will remain, but all new content is posted at our new location.

WAAS Experiment #1: Adjusted WAAS

Posted by John Autin
In a long exchange on the original WAAS post, reader Robert proposed adjusting the WAAS method to account for partial seasons.
  • Basic WAAS:  Season WAAS = WAR minus 2.5, negative results revert to 0.
  • Adjusted WAAS:  Instead of subtracting a standard 2.5 from every season, subtract a fraction of the 2.5 equal to the fraction of the season the player missed.
I decided to run some numbers and let the community chew it over.


So first I defined the population as all inactive position players with 40 to 70 WAR from 1893-2010 -- or roughly the group that spark the most HOF debate. Both "ins" and "outs" are included. There are 188 players.

Then I figured their ranks and totals in basic WAR, basic WAAS, and Adjusted WAAS. (The ranks apply to this group only, so please don't write in to inform me that Ed Delahanty is not the greatest player of all time!)

A note on my Adjusted WAAS method: For convenience, all seasons were measured against a 162-game schedule. So the pre-expansion players get a little boost.

On your marks ... get set ... chew!

WAR Rank
WAAS Rank
Adj WAAS Rank
PosPlayer
WAR Total
WAAS Total
Adj WAAS Total
1
1
1
70.0
44.1
49.3
2
51
29
69.7
27.1
34.0
3
10
10
69.4
34.2
39.0
4
15
19
69.3
32.4
36.2
5
18
35
69.1
31.9
33.2
6
19
7
68.9
31.7
39.4
7
59
45
68.4
25.8
31.8
8
5
6
67.9
36.4
39.5
9
16
17
67.6
32.3
37.0
10
6
9
67.5
35.5
39.2
11
64
22
67.3
25.2
35.7
12
34
16
67.3
29.3
37.0
13
9
4
67.2
34.8
39.8
14
17
12
66.9
32.1
37.9
15
44
57
66.7
28.1
30.6
16
21
27
66.7
31.5
35.1
17
3
8
66.4
38.4
39.4
18
12
14
66.3
33.7
37.1
19
35
47
66.2
29.1
31.3
20
40
21
66.1
28.6
36.0
21
54
67
66.0
26.8
28.5
22
30
26
65.3
29.7
35.2
23
26
13
65.1
30.3
37.2
25
52
42
64.6
27.0
32.0
24
58
61
64.6
26.2
29.6
26
8
15
64.4
35.2
37.1
27
7
5
63.7
35.3
39.7
28
22
23
63.6
31.1
35.6
29
28
40
63.5
29.8
32.3
30
53
34
63.4
26.8
33.8
31
41
30
63.3
28.2
34.0
32
4
3
63.2
38.2
41.9
33
25
20
63.1
30.5
36.2
34
56
60
63.0
26.6
29.8
35
2
2
62.9
38.5
43.0
36
29
37
62.5
29.7
32.9
37
33
51
62.0
29.3
31.1
38
69
54
61.9
24.2
30.7
39
83
81
61.8
22.4
26.3
40
61
72
61.6
25.5
28.0
41
36
31
61.5
29.0
34.0
42
13
11
61.2
33.5
38.0
43
48
48
61.1
27.6
31.3
44
31
41
61.0
29.5
32.2
45
62
63
60.8
25.4
29.4
46
14
32
60.6
32.7
33.9
47
50
46
60.5
27.4
31.4
48
87
70
60.5
22.1
28.1
49
46
36
60.4
27.7
32.9
50
11
18
59.8
33.7
36.6
51
27
38
59.7
30.2
32.9
52
86
92
59.7
22.2
24.7
53
79
79
59.4
22.6
26.4
54
24
25
59.1
30.6
35.4
55
70
71
59.1
24.1
28.0
56
38
58
58.4
28.7
30.4
57
39
53
58.0
28.7
30.9
58
122
103
57.8
18.7
23.6
59
78
73
57.6
22.8
27.6
60
75
75
57.5
23.0
26.9
61
92
98
57.3
21.1
23.9
62
73
104
57.2
23.0
23.6
63
94
105
57.2
21.1
23.6
64
81
88
57.0
22.5
25.2
65
49
56
57.0
27.4
30.6
66
20
24
56.8
31.6
35.5
67
67
80
56.8
24.7
26.3
68
23
28
56.7
31.1
34.7
69
45
50
56.0
28.0
31.1
70
57
64
55.8
26.3
29.2
71
100
97
55.6
20.6
23.9
72
65
43
55.6
25.1
32.0
73
74
78
55.6
23.0
26.5
74
80
84
55.5
22.6
25.8
75
43
55
55.4
28.1
30.6
76
123
85
55.0
18.5
25.6
77
32
49
54.9
29.4
31.3
78
96
83
54.8
21.0
26.0
79
111
68
54.4
19.5
28.2
80
112
112
54.1
19.3
22.7
81
98
94
53.2
20.7
24.5
82
66
65
53.0
24.7
29.1
83
113
111
52.9
19.3
22.7
84
47
62
52.8
27.6
29.6
85
155
141
52.5
16.2
20.8
86
99
96
52.3
20.7
24.3
87
68
69
52.2
24.5
28.2
88
114
120
52.2
19.2
22.4
89
91
99
52.0
21.2
23.8
90
135
115
51.8
17.9
22.6
91
84
66
51.2
22.4
28.5
92
169
169
51.1
15.0
17.9
93
127
119
50.9
18.2
22.4
94
152
150
50.6
16.3
19.9
95
101
113
50.5
20.6
22.6
96
108
123
50.5
19.9
22.3
97
42
52
50.4
28.2
31.0
98
77
86
50.4
22.8
25.6
99
183
137
50.3
12.2
21.0
100
173
180
49.9
14.0
16.5
101
110
90
49.9
19.6
25.1
102
90
87
49.6
21.5
25.4
103
93
59
49.5
21.1
30.0
104
182
177
49.4
12.3
16.8
105
97
127
49.3
20.9
22.1
106
147
132
49.2
16.9
21.6
107
55
33
48.9
26.7
33.9
108
102
76
48.7
20.5
26.8
110
128
128
48.4
18.2
21.9
109
137
146
48.4
17.8
20.2
111
139
131
48.3
17.6
21.8
112
157
153
48.2
15.9
19.8
113
164
142
47.9
15.2
20.5
114
60
44
47.8
25.6
32.0
115
148
140
47.8
16.9
20.8
116
125
130
47.7
18.4
21.8
117
82
82
47.4
22.5
26.2
118
95
91
47.3
21.1
25.0
119
116
106
47.3
19.1
23.5
120
145
118
47.2
16.9
22.5
121
165
175
47.1
15.2
17.0
122
160
167
47.1
15.6
18.3
123
140
158
46.8
17.6
19.4
124
156
133
46.5
16.1
21.6
125
132
152
46.5
18.1
19.9
126
103
116
46.4
20.5
22.6
127
104
100
46.4
20.5
23.8
128
121
110
46.4
18.8
22.8
129
143
164
46.3
17.1
18.7
130
76
102
46.1
23.0
23.7
131
72
89
45.9
23.8
25.1
132
144
147
45.3
17.1
20.1
133
153
176
45.2
16.2
16.9
135
107
129
45.1
20.1
21.9
134
162
165
45.1
15.5
18.6
136
106
122
45.0
20.2
22.3
137
163
168
44.9
15.3
18.0
138
141
155
44.8
17.4
19.6
139
115
109
44.7
19.2
22.8
141
37
39
44.6
28.8
32.5
140
126
143
44.6
18.4
20.3
142
109
125
44.5
19.9
22.1
144
124
154
44.4
18.4
19.6
143
176
171
44.4
13.1
17.5
145
133
149
44.2
18.0
19.9
146
71
95
44.2
24.1
24.3
147
150
160
44.1
16.5
19.1
148
138
138
44.0
17.7
21.0
149
167
151
43.9
15.2
19.9
150
188
163
43.8
8.0
18.9
151
187
185
43.7
9.1
14.7
152
118
139
43.6
19.0
20.9
153
158
161
43.5
15.9
19.0
154
89
77
43.4
21.6
26.7
155
134
134
43.4
18.0
21.4
156
119
107
43.3
19.0
23.3
157
154
162
43.3
16.2
18.9
158
85
93
43.0
22.3
24.7
159
181
183
43.0
12.4
16.1
160
120
114
42.9
18.9
22.6
161
180
181
42.8
12.6
16.4
162
130
117
42.8
18.2
22.5
163
136
126
42.8
17.9
22.1
164
105
108
42.7
20.5
23.2
166
63
74
42.6
25.4
27.0
165
175
159
42.6
13.8
19.4
167
131
135
42.5
18.2
21.4
168
88
101
42.4
21.8
23.8
169
178
166
41.8
12.8
18.5
170
129
145
41.8
18.2
20.2
171
142
156
41.6
17.1
19.6
172
174
124
41.6
13.9
22.2
173
151
170
41.5
16.4
17.8
174
166
121
41.5
15.2
22.3
175
171
173
41.3
14.5
17.1
177
117
136
41.2
19.0
21.1
176
172
172
41.2
14.3
17.5
178
179
186
40.8
12.7
14.6
179
184
178
40.6
12.1
16.7
181
159
179
40.6
15.9
16.6
180
185
187
40.6
10.6
14.1
182
170
182
40.5
14.8
16.3
183
146
148
40.5
16.9
19.9
184
168
174
40.4
15.2
17.0
185
177
184
40.4
13.1
15.1
186
186
188
40.4
9.9
12.8
187
149
144
40.0
16.7
20.2
188
161
157
40.0
15.6
19.4


Late addenda: If the cutoff for the "Hall of WAR" is 60 WAR, then the players here with WAR Ranks of 1-49 would make that Hall. The analogous Halls of WAAS and of Adjusted WAAS, then, would take those ranked 1-49 in those categories. The WAAS cutoff would be 27.4 WAAS (Bobby Bonds), while the Adjusted WAAS cutoff would be 31.3 Adj.WAAS (Joe Gordon).

If 49 of these guys make a hypothetical Hall, 40 would make it by both WAAS and Adj. WAAS
  • In by WAAS but not by Adj. WAAS: Ryne Sandberg, Ken Boyer, Richie Ashburn, George Sisler, Bill Terry, Eddie Murray, Lou Boudreau, Minnie Minoso, Bobby Bonds.
  • In by Adj. WAAS but not by WAAS: Carlton Fisk, Lou Whitaker, John McGraw, Reggie Smith, Tim Raines, Joe Kelley, Billy Hamilton, Tony Gwynn, Bobby Wallace.
Those who saw the biggest difference between WAAS and Adjusted WAAS:
  • Biggest gainers by Adj. WAAS: Roger Bresnahan, Gabby Hartnett, Lenny Dykstra, Bill Dickey, Carlton Fisk.
  • Biggest losers: Billy Williams, Vada Pinson, Nellie Fox, Jim Fregosi, Dale Murphy.

No comments:

Post a Comment