Projecting Albert Pujols' Career

Albert Pujols is already 31 and has completed 11 major-league seasons, and thus it's a little easier to project his career totals than Prince Fielder's.

Let's see what his comps look like:

I chose to look at Pujols' last 4 seasons and see who performed similarly. Here are all the guys to produce an OPS+ between 171 and 181 (which is +/- 5 from Pujols' 176) over their 4 seasons from Age 28 through Age 31, minimum 2000 plate appearances:

Player	OPS+	PA	From	To	Age	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jason Giambi	177	2719	1999	2002	28-31	619	2165	705	146	5	155	502	.326	.452	.612	1.064
Willie McCovey	177	2358	1966	1969	28-31	582	1972	584	85	16	148	418	.296	.401	.581	.982
Albert Pujols	176	2692	2008	2011	28-31	614	2258	729	157	2	163	468	.323	.421	.611	1.032
Nap Lajoie	176	2045	1903	1906	28-31	482	1889	671	150	37	14	327	.355	.393	.496	.889
Frank Robinson	173	2579	1964	1967	28-31	596	2205	677	128	20	141	425	.307	.399	.575	.974
Stan Musial	173	2720	1949	1952	28-31	609	2323	798	154	38	117	431	.344	.439	.594	1.033
Manny Ramirez	171	2349	2000	2003	28-31	534	1973	653	134	5	149	458	.331	.433	.631	1.063

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/12/2011.

First off, Nap Lajoie seems to be a pretty poor comp since his 176 OPS+ was in a much lower offensive era (note his OPS was .889 as compared to Pujols' 1.032).

I'm also disinclined to include Giambi since his career isn't finished.

Let's see what the other guys did in their careers after the age of 31:

• Willie McCovey: played until his Age 42 season, accumulating 4,467 more plate appearances with a 134 OPS+
• Frank Robinson: played until his Age 40 season, accumulating 4,091 more plate appearances with a 149 OPS+
• Stan Musial: played until his Age 42 season, accumulating 5,966 more plate appearances with a 144 OPS+
• Manny Ramirez: played until his Age 39 season, accumulating 3,862 more plate appearances with a 150 OPS+

Whew--those are some pretty awesome late-career performances. Manny's career was cut short by his premature retirement, which resulted in a smaller number of PAs and also (probably) a higher OPS+, especially given how poor things were going in 2011 when he called it quits.

Anyway, those 4 guys averaged 4,596 plate appearances from Age 32 until the end, with a weighted average OPS+ of 144.

Pujols has yet to post a season with an OPS+ as low as 144 (wow!) with 2011 his worst at 150. This past season he posted 0.057 HR per plate appearance and 0.152 RBI per plate appearance. Let's downgrade those slightly for a 144 OPS+ to 0.056 HR and 0.146 RBI per PA. If he has 4,596 more plate appearances coming his way, that's another 253 homers and 671 RBI.

After 2011, Pujols' career totals are 445 homers and 1,329 RBI. Add in the projected numbers and the totals are 699 homers and precisely 2,000 RBI.

Those 699 homers would be good for 4th all-time behind just Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, and Babe Ruth, and the 2,000 RBI would be 4th as well, just ahead of Bonds and behind Aaron, Ruth, and Cap Anson.

And let's face it...nobody is going to finish with 699 homers. You get that far, you hang on for 1 more...let's call it an even 700 HR and 2,000 RBI for Phat Albert.