Projecting C.J. Wilson in 2012

C.J. Wilson is one of the prized pitchers on the free-agent market, though some might call him a boobie prize.

Let's take a guess at what he might do in 2012.
Wilson's 2011 numbers were great. His 2.94 ERA was good for a 152 ERA+ and he had a WHIP of 1.187 to go with 8.3 K/9 innings pitched.

What's more, he did that playing for the Rangers, in a ballpark that favors offense. Take a look at his 2011 home/road splits:

I	Split	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	SO/9	SO/BB
	Home	3.69	16	16	102.1	96	49	42	10	30	94	1.231	8.3	3.13
	Away	2.31	18	18	121.0	95	40	31	6	44	112	1.149	8.3	2.55

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/17/2011.

Yeah, he was even better on the road.

Now check out pitchers with the most WAR in their Age 29 and 30 seasons, going back to 1981:

Rk	Player	WAR	From	To	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	ERA+	HR	OPS
1	Greg Maddux	15.1	1995	1996	63	63	454.2	372	124	112	51	353	2.22	196	19	.548
2	Orel Hershiser	14.2	1988	1989	70	67	523.2	434	148	133	150	356	2.29	149	27	.596
3	Cliff Lee	12.3	2008	2009	65	65	455.0	459	156	146	77	351	2.89	147	29	.666
4	CC Sabathia	11.9	2010	2011	67	67	475.0	439	179	163	135	427	3.09	141	37	.661
5	David Cone	11.5	1992	1993	69	68	503.2	406	193	172	225	452	3.07	134	35	.643
6	Randy Johnson	11.2	1993	1994	58	57	427.1	317	162	153	171	512	3.22	143	36	.624
7	Bob Welch	11.1	1986	1987	68	68	487.1	431	189	176	141	379	3.25	115	35	.642
8	Bartolo Colon	10.9	2002	2003	67	67	475.1	442	192	180	137	322	3.41	131	50	.698
9	John Smoltz	10.6	1996	1997	70	70	509.2	433	190	169	118	517	2.98	144	40	.620
10	Al Leiter	10.4	1995	1996	61	61	398.1	315	154	144	227	353	3.25	135	29	.669
11	Charles Nagy	10.3	1996	1997	66	66	449.0	470	204	192	138	316	3.85	124	48	.736
12	Curt Schilling	10.3	1996	1997	61	61	437.2	357	165	149	108	501	3.06	139	41	.640
13	Pedro Martinez	10.3	2001	2002	48	48	316.0	228	95	81	65	402	2.31	197	18	.549
14	Tom Glavine	10.3	1995	1996	65	65	434.0	404	167	146	151	308	3.03	143	23	.657
15	Roger Clemens	10.1	1992	1993	61	61	438.1	378	179	161	129	368	3.31	134	28	.631
16	Johan Santana	10.0	2008	2009	59	59	401.0	362	141	124	109	352	2.78	149	43	.666
17	Frank Viola	9.9	1989	1990	71	71	510.2	473	198	180	134	393	3.17	121	37	.649
18	Teddy Higuera	9.6	1988	1989	53	53	362.2	293	122	114	107	283	2.83	139	24	.601
19	C.J. Wilson	9.4	2010	2011	67	67	427.1	352	172	149	167	376	3.14	140	26	.637
20	Mark Buehrle	9.3	2008	2009	67	67	432.0	462	203	183	97	245	3.81	122	49	.751
21	Roy Oswalt	9.3	2007	2008	65	64	420.2	420	169	157	107	319	3.36	129	37	.700
22	Bronson Arroyo	9.2	2006	2007	69	69	451.1	454	207	187	127	340	3.73	125	59	.739
23	Derek Lowe	9.0	2002	2003	65	65	423.0	382	178	164	120	237	3.49	132	29	.653
24	Roy Halladay	8.9	2006	2007	63	63	445.1	440	183	171	82	271	3.46	131	34	.668
25	Freddy Garcia	8.8	2004	2005	64	64	438.0	417	194	187	124	330	3.84	119	48	.704

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/17/2011.

Wilson's on there as one of the top pitchers. Most of the rest of these guys continued to have a lot of success after the age of 30. Bob Welch is one who didn't particularly (despite his 27-win season in 1990 that was worth just 2.5 WAR--more on that in a post this weekend.) Nagy was also finished with his good seasons after 30, and Higuera never reached 3 WAR again. Bronson Arroyo hasn't hit 3 again either.

Freddy Garcia hasn't had any really good seasons after Age 30 either, but I noticed a bug in the table above, as the 2004-2005 seasons came before his Age 29 season.

Here are how those same pitchers did in the 2 years that followed, i.e. their Age 31 and Age 32 seasons. Wilson is obviously missing from this list, as is Sabathia (who is the same age).

Rk	Player	WAR	From	To	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	ERA+	HR
1	Greg Maddux	13.4	1997	1998	67	67	483.2	401	133	119	65	381	2.21	188	22
2	Roy Halladay	13.3	2008	2009	66	65	485.0	454	170	150	74	414	2.78	155	40
3	David Cone	12.3	1994	1995	53	53	401.0	325	155	147	142	323	3.30	146	39
4	Pedro Martinez	12.2	2003	2004	62	62	403.2	340	151	140	108	433	3.12	153	33
5	Cliff Lee	11.1	2010	2011	60	60	445.0	392	150	137	60	423	2.77	144	34
6	Tom Glavine	10.6	1997	1998	66	66	469.1	399	153	142	153	309	2.72	153	33
7	Curt Schilling	10.5	1998	1999	59	59	449.0	395	175	168	105	452	3.37	135	48
8	Randy Johnson	9.0	1995	1996	44	38	275.2	207	92	84	90	379	2.74	176	20
9	Frank Viola	8.8	1991	1992	70	70	469.1	473	211	193	143	253	3.70	107	38
10	Roy Oswalt	8.2	2009	2010	63	62	393.0	345	153	148	97	331	3.39	119	38
11	Roger Clemens	7.7	1994	1995	47	47	310.2	265	132	119	131	300	3.45	144	30
12	John Smoltz	7.6	1998	1999	55	55	354.0	313	128	120	84	329	3.05	142	24
13	Al Leiter	7.6	1997	1998	55	55	344.1	284	133	126	162	306	3.29	126	21
14	Mark Buehrle	7.2	2010	2011	64	64	415.2	467	198	182	94	208	3.94	109	38
15	Bob Welch	6.0	1988	1989	69	69	454.1	428	189	169	159	295	3.35	113	35
16	Bartolo Colon	5.7	2004	2005	67	67	431.0	430	215	202	114	315	4.22	104	64
17	Johan Santana	4.4	2010	2010	29	29	199.0	179	67	66	55	144	2.98	131	16
18	Bronson Arroyo	3.9	2008	2009	67	67	420.1	433	217	200	133	290	4.28	101	60
19	Freddy Garcia	3.2	2006	2007	44	44	274.1	302	155	147	67	185	4.82	98	44
20	Teddy Higuera	2.5	1990	1991	34	33	206.1	204	98	89	60	162	3.88	101	18
21	Orel Hershiser	2.0	1990	1991	25	25	137.1	138	55	55	36	89	3.60	100	4
22	Charles Nagy	1.5	1998	1999	66	65	412.1	488	259	233	125	246	5.09	96	60
23	Derek Lowe	0.5	2004	2005	68	68	404.2	447	251	199	126	251	4.43	101	43

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/17/2011.

So a lot of these guys fell off considerably, but many didn't.

What's more--since Wilson has been a starter only since 2010, he doesn't yet have a lot of pitches on his arm. He's also been really durable the last 2 seasons.

Going forward, then--I feel pretty good about Wilson's future. Like any pitcher, he could break down, but barring major injury, I'd put him down for about 19 WAR over the next 4 seasons.