In two recent columns (insider), ESPN's Peter Keating proposes evaluating HOF candidates with a WAR-based stat he calls Wins Above All-Star level, or WAAS. In a nutshell:
- Season WAAS = WAR minus 2.5, except that...
- Season WAAS cannot be less than 0.
- Career WAAS = sum of season WAAS.
- Threshold for HOF consideration is about 20 WAAS.
In Keating's words:
"[I]t's quite possible to pile up [career] WAR without having superstar seasons. ... Wins Above All-Star Level is my way of rewarding greatness, rather than mere longevity. Players having marginal All-Star years average about 2.5 WAR. WAAS simply looks at a player's WAR, year by year, subtracts 2.5 from each season and adds up the total. Any season whose adjusted WAR is negative is thrown out, since WAAS measures a player's peak performance. The results speak for themselves. Sandy Koufax has 54.5 WAR, fewer than Frank Tanana (55.1), who pitched 1,800 more innings. But Koufax has far more WAAS: 32.6 versus 19.7."I calculated the top WAAS values (based on B-R WAR) among position players who have appeared on a HOF ballot but have not yet been elected.
Non-HOF Batters with at least 20 WAAS:
(Only HOF-eligibles with at least 1 year on the ballot)
Position Player
|
WAAS
|
Jeff Bagwell
|
45.2
|
Edgar Martinez
|
34.8
|
Jim Wynn
|
33.7
|
Dick Allen
|
33.5
|
Bill Dahlen
|
33.4
|
Sal Bando
|
32.7
|
Bobby Grich
|
32.3
|
Alan Trammell
|
32.1
|
Mark McGwire
|
30.5
|
Keith Hernandez
|
29.5
|
Larry Walker
|
29.3
|
Ken Boyer
|
28.7
|
Minnie Minoso
|
27.6
|
Bobby Bonds
|
27.4
|
Lou Whitaker
|
27.1
|
Tim Raines
|
27
|
Rafael Palmeiro
|
26.8
|
Reggie Smith
|
26.8
|
Jack Glasscock
|
25.9
|
Graig Nettles
|
25.5
|
Buddy Bell
|
25.4
|
John Olerud
|
24.7
|
Cesar Cedeno
|
24.5
|
Dale Murphy
|
24.1
|
Sherry Magee
|
24.1
|
Cupid Childs
|
23.1
|
Jim Fregosi
|
23
|
Ted Simmons
|
22.8
|
Will Clark
|
22.8
|
Robin Ventura
|
22.6
|
Dwight Evans
|
22.4
|
Dolph Camilli
|
22.3
|
Tony Oliva
|
21.8
|
Charlie Keller
|
21.6
|
Ron Cey
|
21.2
|
Bernie Williams
|
21.1
|
Darrell Evans
|
21.1
|
Willie Davis
|
21.1
|
Stan Hack
|
21
|
Vada Pinson
|
20.9
|
Bob Elliott
|
20.7
|
Bob Johnson
|
20.7
|
Fred McGriff
|
20.6
|
Joe Torre
|
20.6
|
Gene Tenace
|
20.5
|
Rocky Colavito
|
20.5
|
George Burns
|
20.1
|
That's fine, but what we really want to know is how those numbers stack up to the current HOFers. So I integrated the players from the first list into the list of HOFers.
HOFers plus Eligibles with at least 20 WAAS:
(Eligibles in bold italics)
Position Player
|
WAAS
|
123.9
| |
104.3
| |
103.4
| |
90.2
| |
88.9
| |
86.8
| |
85.4
| |
83.1
| |
82.6
| |
79.4
| |
78.4
| |
76.6
| |
70.2
| |
65.2
| |
64.4
| |
61.1
| |
59.3
| |
58.6
| |
58.6
| |
57.7
| |
51.1
| |
49.5
| |
47.3
| |
46.8
| |
46.8
| |
46.6
| |
46.3
| |
46.1
| |
45.4
| |
Jeff Bagwell
|
45.2
|
45.1
| |
44.3
| |
43.5
| |
43.4
| |
39.7
| |
39.4
| |
39.0
| |
38.4
| |
38.2
| |
37.8
| |
37.4
| |
37.4
| |
36.9
| |
36.2
| |
35.5
| |
35.4
| |
35.3
| |
35.2
| |
Edgar Martinez
|
34.8
|
34.6
| |
34.2
| |
33.7
| |
Jim Wynn
|
33.7
|
Dick Allen
|
33.5
|
Bill Dahlen
|
33.4
|
33.0
| |
32.7
| |
Sal Bando
|
32.7
|
32.4
| |
Bobby Grich
|
32.3
|
Alan Trammell
|
32.1
|
31.9
| |
31.7
| |
31.6
| |
31.5
| |
31.1
| |
31.1
| |
Mark McGwire
|
30.5
|
30.3
| |
30.2
| |
29.8
| |
29.7
| |
Keith Hernandez
|
29.5
|
29.4
| |
Larry Walker
|
29.3
|
29.3
| |
28.8
| |
Ken Boyer
|
28.7
|
28.7
| |
28.2
| |
28.1
| |
28.1
| |
28.0
| |
27.7
| |
27.6
| |
Minnie Minoso
|
27.6
|
Bobby Bonds
|
27.4
|
27.4
| |
Lou Whitaker
|
27.1
|
Tim Raines
|
27
|
Rafael Palmeiro
|
26.8
|
Reggie Smith
|
26.8
|
26.7
| |
26.6
| |
26.3
| |
26.2
| |
Jack Glasscock
|
25.9
|
25.8
| |
Graig Nettles
|
25.5
|
Buddy Bell
|
25.4
|
25.2
| |
25.1
| |
24.7
| |
John Olerud
|
24.7
|
Cesar Cedeno
|
24.5
|
24.2
| |
Dale Murphy
|
24.1
|
Sherry Magee
|
24.1
|
23.8
| |
Cupid Childs
|
23.1
|
23.0
| |
23.0
| |
Jim Fregosi
|
23
|
23.0
| |
Ted Simmons
|
22.8
|
Will Clark
|
22.8
|
Robin Ventura
|
22.6
|
22.5
| |
22.5
| |
Dwight Evans
|
22.4
|
22.4
| |
Dolph Camilli
|
22.3
|
22.2
| |
Tony Oliva
|
21.8
|
Charlie Keller
|
21.6
|
21.5
| |
Ron Cey
|
21.2
|
Bernie Williams
|
21.1
|
Darrell Evans
|
21.1
|
21.1
| |
Willie Davis
|
21.1
|
Stan Hack
|
21
|
Vada Pinson
|
20.9
|
Bob Elliott
|
20.7
|
Bob Johnson
|
20.7
|
Fred McGriff
|
20.6
|
Joe Torre
|
20.6
|
20.5
| |
Gene Tenace
|
20.5
|
Rocky Colavito
|
20.5
|
20.2
| |
20.2
| |
20.2
| |
George Burns
|
20.1
|
19.9
| |
19.5
| |
19.3
| |
19.3
| |
19.2
| |
19.0
| |
18.7
| |
18.7
| |
18.5
| |
18.4
| |
18.4
| |
18.2
| |
18.2
| |
18.1
| |
17.8
| |
17.6
| |
17.6
| |
17.6
| |
17.5
| |
17.4
| |
16.9
| |
16.9
| |
16.8
| |
16.5
| |
16.4
| |
16.3
| |
16.2
| |
16.1
| |
15.0
| |
14.0
| |
13.9
| |
13.1
| |
12.2
| |
11.7
| |
10.6
| |
10.6
| |
10.4
| |
10.3
| |
10.2
| |
10.2
| |
9.6
| |
9.5
| |
9.2
| |
8.9
| |
7.1
| |
6.8
| |
6.4
| |
5.7
| |
4.5
| |
3.4
| |
3.3
| |
2.2
| |
1.4
| |
1.3
| |
0.8
| |
0.7
| |
0.7
|
Some of the players most often put down as "compilers" -- Ted Simmons, Darrell Evans -- do, in fact, drop down the rankings when their WAR is translated into WAAS. But others, such as Trammell and Whitaker, hold up quite well.
The biggest surprises to me in these tables are Jimmy Wynn and Bobby Bonds.
P.S. I'm sorry for not having links on all the player names, but in order to calculate the WAAS values I had to copy data from the Play Index into Excel and then use the subtotal feature; that last step lost the links.
(And now I've realized how to do it and preserve the links, but I'm not going to redo all the work!)
(And now I've realized how to do it and preserve the links, but I'm not going to redo all the work!)
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