What to expect from Manny Ramirez

Manny Ramirez has reportedly filed for reinstatement and faces only a 50-game ban should he sign with a team.

He'll be in his Age 40 season in 2012, though...what sort of production might we see?
Let's take a look at players similar to Manny in the later years of his career. I'm going to ignore 2011 since he played only 5 games.

From 2006 to 2010 (Manny's Age 34 to 38 seasons) he put up a 151 OPS+ over 610 games.

Here are some comps for the same age range:

Player	OPS+	G	From	To	PA	HR	RBI
Honus Wagner	161	713	1908	1912	3064	35	481
Edgar Martinez	158	736	1997	2001	3204	141	557
Tris Speaker	158	684	1922	1926	2963	56	439
Nap Lajoie	157	631	1909	1913	2576	8	341
Gavvy Cravath	153	631	1915	1919	2487	67	367
Manny Ramirez	151	610	2006	2010	2532	120	416
Ty Cobb	151	686	1921	1925	3056	38	469
Willie Mays	150	715	1965	1969	2843	147	422
Willie Stargell	149	566	1974	1978	2290	108	383
Chipper Jones	148	610	2006	2010	2588	105	380
Stan Musial	147	694	1955	1959	2870	120	425
Jack Fournier	147	508	1924	1927	2031	70	347
Frank Robinson	146	659	1970	1974	2712	124	401
Tony Gwynn	145	637	1994	1998	2706	57	392
Larry Walker	144	603	2001	2005	2401	112	405
Mike Schmidt	144	724	1984	1988	2998	153	493
Ellis Burks	142	559	1999	2003	2240	121	385

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/4/2011.

These guys all had at least 500 games over their Age 34-38 seasons and an OPS+ of 141 to 161.

Now here is what these guys did in their Age 40 seasons:

Rk	Player	Year	OPS+	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Edgar Martinez	2003	141	SEA	145	603	497	72	146	25	0	24	98	92	95	.294	.406	.489	.895	*D
2	Tony Gwynn	2000	110	SDP	36	140	127	17	41	12	0	1	17	9	4	.323	.364	.441	.805	*9/D
3	Willie Stargell	1980	129	PIT	67	231	202	28	53	10	1	11	38	26	52	.262	.351	.485	.836	*3
4	Frank Robinson	1976	104	CLE	36	79	67	5	15	0	0	3	10	11	12	.224	.329	.358	.687	*D/37
5	Willie Mays	1971	158	SFG	136	537	417	82	113	24	5	18	61	112	123	.271	.425	.482	.907	*83
6	Stan Musial	1961	118	STL	123	431	372	46	107	22	4	15	70	52	35	.288	.371	.489	.860	*7
7	Tris Speaker	1928	95	PHA	64	212	191	28	51	22	2	3	30	10	5	.267	.310	.450	.761	*8/79
8	Ty Cobb	1927	134	PHA	133	574	490	104	175	32	7	5	93	67	12	.357	.440	.482	.921	*98
9	Nap Lajoie	1915	100	PHA	129	520	490	40	137	24	5	1	61	11	16	.280	.301	.355	.656	*46/35
10	Honus Wagner	1914	92	PIT	150	616	552	60	139	15	9	1	50	51	51	.252	.317	.317	.634	*65/3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/4/2011.

If a guy from the first list doesn't appear on the second list, it means he didn't play in MLB in his Age 40 season (except for Chipper Jones, who is coming up on his Age 40 season now.) A lot of the guys immediately above were quite good in their Age 40 season--Mays, Edgar, and Cobb put up awesome seasons. But if you factor in all the guys above who weren't good enough to stick around until 40, our expectations for Manny shouldn't be all that high. Maybe he's good enough to post a season like Willie Mays, but the odds are good that he'll be at best league-average.