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Win Probability Added (Jose Bautista posts an all-time great season)

Posted by Andy
Here's a look at Win Probability Added (WPA) leaders in 2011. Turns out we saw a little bit of history.

Rk Player WPA Age Tm G PA
1 Jose Bautista 7.978 30 TOR 149 655
2 Prince Fielder 7.725 27 MIL 162 692
3 Miguel Cabrera 7.594 28 DET 161 688
4 Joey Votto 7.092 27 CIN 161 719
5 Ryan Braun 6.436 27 MIL 150 629
6 Matt Kemp 6.223 26 LAD 161 689
7 Jacoby Ellsbury 6.208 27 BOS 158 729
8 Lance Berkman 5.733 35 STL 145 587
9 Josh Hamilton 4.826 30 TEX 121 538
10 Albert Pujols 4.745 31 STL 147 651
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/12/2011.

This list is unsurprising, but notice that overall leader Jose Bautista not only had the most WPA of all players in 2011 but also did it in fewer games.

Bautista was one of just 3 players in 2011 with at least 0.05 WPA for each game played:

Rk Player WPA G Age Tm PA
1 Jose Bautista 7.978 149 30 TOR 655
2 Everth Cabrera 0.210 2 24 SDP 9
3 Erik Kratz 0.123 2 31 PHI 6
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/12/2011.

In fact, one could argue that Jose Bautista just put up one of the greatest 50 offensive seasons from the last 60 years.

Here are the players since 1950 (as far back as Baseball-Reference.com has WPA data) with at least 0.05 WPA per game played and at least 400 plate appearances:

Rk Player Year PA WPA G Tm AB HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Jose Bautista 2011 655 7.978 149 TOR 513 43 103 .302 .447 .608 1.056 *95/D
2 Albert Pujols 2006 634 9.349 143 STL 535 49 137 .331 .431 .671 1.102 *3
3 David Ortiz 2006 686 7.851 151 BOS 558 54 137 .287 .413 .636 1.049 *D3
4 Ryan Howard 2006 704 8.227 159 PHI 581 58 149 .313 .425 .659 1.084 *3
5 Chipper Jones 2005 432 5.758 109 ATL 358 21 72 .296 .412 .556 .968 *5
6 David Ortiz 2005 713 8.754 159 BOS 601 47 148 .300 .397 .604 1.001 *D3
7 Barry Bonds 2004 617 12.943 147 SFG 373 45 101 .362 .609 .812 1.422 *7/D
8 Barry Bonds 2003 550 7.971 130 SFG 390 45 90 .341 .529 .749 1.278 *7/D
9 Barry Bonds 2002 612 10.487 143 SFG 403 46 110 .370 .582 .799 1.381 *7/D
10 Jason Giambi 2001 671 8.488 154 OAK 520 38 120 .342 .477 .660 1.137 *3D
11 Barry Bonds 2001 664 11.470 153 SFG 476 73 137 .328 .515 .863 1.379 *7/D
12 Todd Helton 2000 697 8.952 160 COL 580 42 147 .372 .463 .698 1.162 *3
13 Mark McGwire 1998 681 9.627 155 STL 509 70 147 .299 .470 .752 1.222 *3
14 Tony Gwynn 1997 651 7.552 149 SDP 592 17 119 .372 .409 .547 .957 *9/D
15 Barry Bonds 1995 635 7.460 144 SFG 506 33 104 .294 .431 .577 1.009 *7
16 Edgar Martinez 1995 639 7.518 145 SEA 511 29 113 .356 .479 .628 1.107 *D/53
17 Mark McGwire 1995 422 5.642 104 OAK 317 39 90 .274 .441 .685 1.125 *3D
18 Jeff Bagwell 1994 479 5.920 110 HOU 400 39 116 .368 .451 .750 1.201 *3/9
19 Barry Bonds 1991 634 8.135 153 PIT 510 25 116 .292 .410 .514 .924 *7/8
20 Will Clark 1989 675 8.250 159 SFG 588 23 111 .333 .407 .546 .953 *3
21 Mike Schmidt 1981 434 5.871 102 PHI 354 31 91 .316 .435 .644 1.080 *5
22 Dwight Evans 1981 504 5.586 108 BOS 412 22 71 .296 .415 .522 .937 *9
23 George Brett 1980 515 6.154 117 KCR 449 24 118 .390 .454 .664 1.118 *5/3
24 Joe Morgan 1975 639 7.488 146 CIN 498 17 94 .327 .466 .508 .974 *4
25 Cesar Cedeno 1972 625 7.161 139 HOU 559 22 82 .320 .385 .537 .921 *8
Rk Player Year PA WPA G Tm AB HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
26 Hank Aaron 1971 573 7.020 139 ATL 495 47 118 .327 .410 .669 1.079 *39
27 Joe Torre 1971 707 8.850 161 STL 634 24 137 .363 .421 .555 .976 *5
28 Willie McCovey 1970 638 7.709 152 SFG 495 39 126 .289 .444 .612 1.056 *3
29 Willie McCovey 1969 623 10.109 149 SFG 491 45 126 .320 .453 .656 1.108 *3
30 Mike Epstein 1969 500 6.699 131 WSA 403 30 85 .278 .414 .551 .965 *3
31 Carl Yastrzemski 1967 680 8.451 161 BOS 579 44 121 .326 .418 .622 1.040 *7/8
32 Roberto Clemente 1967 632 8.134 147 PIT 585 23 110 .357 .400 .554 .954 *9/8
33 Hank Aaron 1967 669 7.977 155 ATL 600 39 109 .307 .369 .573 .943 *98/4
34 Harmon Killebrew 1965 479 5.986 113 MIN 401 25 75 .269 .384 .501 .885 *35/7
35 Mickey Mantle 1962 502 8.021 123 NYY 377 30 89 .321 .486 .605 1.091 *89
36 Mickey Mantle 1961 646 8.936 153 NYY 514 54 128 .317 .448 .687 1.135 *8
37 Tito Francona 1959 443 6.103 122 CLE 399 20 79 .363 .414 .566 .980 *83/7
38 Hank Aaron 1959 693 7.796 154 MLN 629 39 123 .355 .401 .636 1.037 *98/5
39 Willie Mays 1958 685 7.804 152 SFG 600 29 96 .347 .419 .583 1.002 *8
40 Mickey Mantle 1957 623 9.311 144 NYY 474 34 94 .365 .512 .665 1.177 *8
41 Ted Williams 1957 546 8.338 132 BOS 420 38 87 .388 .526 .731 1.257 *7
42 Mickey Mantle 1956 652 8.435 150 NYY 533 52 130 .353 .464 .705 1.169 *8
43 Ted Williams 1955 417 6.399 98 BOS 320 28 83 .356 .496 .703 1.200 *7
44 Ted Williams 1954 526 6.627 117 BOS 386 29 89 .345 .513 .635 1.148 *7
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/12/2011.

There are lots of famous seasons on here, but there are a few surprises, including Tito Francona in 1959, Mike Epstein in 1969, Cesar Cedeno in 1972, and Dwight Evans in 1981.

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