Carl Crawford's historic collapse (without much hope of recovery)

Since 1901, there have been 145 hitters to amass at least 10 Wins Above Replacement in their Age 27 and 28 seasons. Few, though, have fallen as far as Carl Crawford did in 2011.

Here'a a snippet of the Age 27-28 leaders:


Here are the leaders in WAR over that peiod:

Rk	Player	WAR/pos	From	To
1	Carl Yastrzemski	22.3	1967	1968
2	Ted Williams	22.1	1946	1947
3	Eddie Collins	21.4	1914	1915
4	Babe Ruth	20.9	1922	1923
5	Barry Bonds	20.6	1992	1993
6	Stan Musial	20.2	1948	1949
7	Ernie Banks	19.7	1958	1959
8	Lou Gehrig	19.7	1930	1931
9	Rogers Hornsby	19.5	1923	1924
10	Hank Aaron	18.0	1961	1962

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/28/2011.

Further down the same list, we find the group that includes Carl Crawford in his final two seasons with the Rays:

Rk	Player	WAR/pos 6	From	To
120	Cal Ripken	10.7	1988	1989
121	Mickey Cochrane	10.7	1930	1931
122	Boog Powell	10.6	1969	1970
123	Tony Oliva	10.6	1966	1967
124	Carl Crawford	10.5	2009	2010
125	Jeff Cirillo	10.5	1997	1998
126	Mickey Rivers	10.5	1976	1977
127	Brian Giles	10.5	1998	1999
128	Vladimir Guerrero	10.4	2002	2003
129	Rickey Henderson	10.4	1986	1987
130	Johnny Bench	10.4	1975	1976

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/28/2011.

Now that's a pretty good group of players that includes numerous Hall of Famers and multiple-time All Stars.

Now of these 145 players, here are the worst WAR totals in their very next season at Age 29:

Rk	Player	WAR/pos	Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Todd Hundley	-1.3	1998	29	NYM	53	142	124	8	20	4	0	3	12	16	55	.161	.261	.266	.527	*7/2
2	Jim Wynn	-0.9	1971	29	HOU	123	466	404	38	82	16	0	7	45	56	63	.203	.302	.295	.596	*98/7
3	Carl Crawford	0.0	2011	29	BOS	130	538	506	65	129	29	7	11	56	23	104	.255	.289	.405	.694	*7/D
4	Fred Lynn	0.1	1981	29	CAL	76	302	256	28	56	8	1	5	31	38	42	.219	.322	.316	.639	*8
5	Merv Rettenmund	0.6	1972	29	BAL	102	346	301	40	70	10	2	6	21	41	37	.233	.325	.339	.663	*98/7
6	Jim Fregosi	0.6	1971	29	CAL	107	399	347	31	81	15	1	5	33	39	61	.233	.317	.326	.643	*63/7
7	Shane Mack	1.1	1993	29	MIN	128	553	503	66	139	30	4	10	61	41	76	.276	.335	.412	.746	*8*7/9
8	Edd Roush	1.3	1922	29	CIN	49	189	165	29	58	7	4	1	24	19	5	.352	.428	.461	.888	*8
9	Dave Parker	1.4	1980	29	PIT	139	550	518	71	153	31	1	17	79	25	69	.295	.327	.458	.785	*9
10	Darrell Porter	1.5	1981	29	STL	61	217	174	22	39	10	2	6	31	39	32	.224	.364	.408	.772	*2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/28/2011.

There's Crawford, with the 3rd worst performance of that entire group.
Perusing that list, I guess there's some slim hope for him, though. There's an interesting parallel with Fred Lynn, who is 1981 was in his first season away from the Red Sox (unlike Crawford who just had his first season with them). After a significantly down 1981, Lynn went back on fire in 1982 and ripped off several great seasons.
And Lynn wasn't the only one to rebound. Here are the career WAR totals from Age 29 on for that same group of 10:

Rk	Player	WAR/pos	From	To	Age
1	Jim Wynn	23.5	1971	1977	29-35
2	Fred Lynn	17.6	1981	1990	29-38
3	Edd Roush	16.7	1922	1931	29-38
4	Darrell Porter	12.6	1981	1987	29-35
5	Merv Rettenmund	7.3	1972	1980	29-37
6	Dave Parker	6.7	1980	1991	29-40
7	Shane Mack	5.9	1993	1998	29-34
8	Jim Fregosi	2.6	1971	1978	29-36
9	Todd Hundley	0.1	1998	2003	29-34
10	Carl Crawford	0.0	2011	2011	29-29

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/28/2011.

Wynn had a couple of truly fantastic seasons once he got to 30.

Still, if you're a Red Sox fan, this list can't make you too happy. A number of these guys did a lot with the bat as younger players but lost their hitting ability at Age 29. Crawford looked totally lost at the plate in 2011--will he ever look good again?