Pitchers Who Need to Say Thanks

One of the most basic criticism of ERA as a tool for measuring pitchers is the way it handles runners left on base when the pitcher leaves the game.  Two pitchers can throw identical games and walk away with extremely disparate statistics because of how their bullpens fared after their departure. It seems unfair to penalize a pitcher for runs allowed that were only partly his fault.

One way of examining this  disparity is by looking at the number of runs given to a pitcher after he has left the game and adjusting it to show how many runs he should have given up. The Baseball-Reference.com Starting Pitching Page has a record for each starter's bequeathed runners as well as how many of those runners scored. Overall in 2011, starters left the game with 3186 runners on base and 1046 of those ended up scoring. In other words, on average, 33% of the runners left on base when a starter left a game ended up scoring.

Taking this data into account, some pitchers clearly need to thank their bullpens for helping them out and allowing only a minimal amount of their runs to score, while other pitchers probably have some less than gracious feelings toward  their relievers.

First, the pitchers who benefited the most from the help of their bullpens.

Pitcher	Tm	BQR	BQS	Expected BQS	Difference
Nick Blackburn	MIN	24	2	7.88	-5.88
Ivan Nova	NYY	29	4	9.52	-5.52
Freddy Garcia	NYY	15	0	4.92	-4.92
Alexi Ogando	TEX	18	1	5.91	-4.91
Trevor Cahill	OAK	29	5	9.52	-4.52
Brad Bergesen	BAL	16	1	5.25	-4.25
Tyler Chatwood	LAA	22	3	7.22	-4.22
Kyle Drabek	TOR	15	1	4.92	-3.92
Luis Perez	TOR	18	2	5.91	-3.91
R.A. Dickey	NYM	11	0	3.61	-3.61
Justin Verlander	DET	11	0	3.61	-3.61

(BQR: bequeathed runners; BQS: bequeathed runners who scored; Expected BQS: the number of runners who would of scored at the league rate)

And the pitchers who were hurt the most:

Pitcher	Tm	BQR	BQS	Expected BQS	Difference
Jhoulys Chacin	COL	15	10	4.92	5.08
Jason Vargas	SEA	13	9	4.27	4.73
Jason Marquis	TOT	17	10	5.58	4.42
Aneury Rodriguez	HOU	14	9	4.60	4.40
Michael Pineda	SEA	11	8	3.61	4.39
Justin Masterson	CLE	30	14	9.85	4.15
Joel Pineiro	LAA	24	12	7.88	4.12
Ricky Nolasco	FLA	18	10	5.91	4.09
Doug Davis	CHC	12	8	3.94	4.06

Of course there are other factors that need to be considered, as well. Certainly the base positions of the bequeathed runners is a key piece information. If a pitcher leaves runners primarily on third instead of on first, his bullpen will naturally let more runners score.

Nevertheless, it interesting to ponder, particularly given the accolades that the 11th pitcher in the top list has received. Would a jump in ERA from 2.40 to 2.53 mean a lot in how people view Verlander? Probably not. But it is still interesting to think about.