Let's take a guess at what he might do in 2012.
Wilson's 2011 numbers were great. His 2.94 ERA was good for a 152 ERA+ and he had a WHIP of 1.187 to go with 8.3 K/9 innings pitched.
What's more, he did that playing for the Rangers, in a ballpark that favors offense. Take a look at his 2011 home/road splits:
I | Split | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Home | 3.69 | 16 | 16 | 102.1 | 96 | 49 | 42 | 10 | 30 | 94 | 1.231 | 8.3 | 3.13 | |
Away | 2.31 | 18 | 18 | 121.0 | 95 | 40 | 31 | 6 | 44 | 112 | 1.149 | 8.3 | 2.55 |
Yeah, he was even better on the road.
Now check out pitchers with the most WAR in their Age 29 and 30 seasons, going back to 1981:
Rk | Player | WAR | From | To | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Greg Maddux | 15.1 | 1995 | 1996 | 63 | 63 | 454.2 | 372 | 124 | 112 | 51 | 353 | 2.22 | 196 | 19 | .548 |
2 | Orel Hershiser | 14.2 | 1988 | 1989 | 70 | 67 | 523.2 | 434 | 148 | 133 | 150 | 356 | 2.29 | 149 | 27 | .596 |
3 | Cliff Lee | 12.3 | 2008 | 2009 | 65 | 65 | 455.0 | 459 | 156 | 146 | 77 | 351 | 2.89 | 147 | 29 | .666 |
4 | CC Sabathia | 11.9 | 2010 | 2011 | 67 | 67 | 475.0 | 439 | 179 | 163 | 135 | 427 | 3.09 | 141 | 37 | .661 |
5 | David Cone | 11.5 | 1992 | 1993 | 69 | 68 | 503.2 | 406 | 193 | 172 | 225 | 452 | 3.07 | 134 | 35 | .643 |
6 | Randy Johnson | 11.2 | 1993 | 1994 | 58 | 57 | 427.1 | 317 | 162 | 153 | 171 | 512 | 3.22 | 143 | 36 | .624 |
7 | Bob Welch | 11.1 | 1986 | 1987 | 68 | 68 | 487.1 | 431 | 189 | 176 | 141 | 379 | 3.25 | 115 | 35 | .642 |
8 | Bartolo Colon | 10.9 | 2002 | 2003 | 67 | 67 | 475.1 | 442 | 192 | 180 | 137 | 322 | 3.41 | 131 | 50 | .698 |
9 | John Smoltz | 10.6 | 1996 | 1997 | 70 | 70 | 509.2 | 433 | 190 | 169 | 118 | 517 | 2.98 | 144 | 40 | .620 |
10 | Al Leiter | 10.4 | 1995 | 1996 | 61 | 61 | 398.1 | 315 | 154 | 144 | 227 | 353 | 3.25 | 135 | 29 | .669 |
11 | Charles Nagy | 10.3 | 1996 | 1997 | 66 | 66 | 449.0 | 470 | 204 | 192 | 138 | 316 | 3.85 | 124 | 48 | .736 |
12 | Curt Schilling | 10.3 | 1996 | 1997 | 61 | 61 | 437.2 | 357 | 165 | 149 | 108 | 501 | 3.06 | 139 | 41 | .640 |
13 | Pedro Martinez | 10.3 | 2001 | 2002 | 48 | 48 | 316.0 | 228 | 95 | 81 | 65 | 402 | 2.31 | 197 | 18 | .549 |
14 | Tom Glavine | 10.3 | 1995 | 1996 | 65 | 65 | 434.0 | 404 | 167 | 146 | 151 | 308 | 3.03 | 143 | 23 | .657 |
15 | Roger Clemens | 10.1 | 1992 | 1993 | 61 | 61 | 438.1 | 378 | 179 | 161 | 129 | 368 | 3.31 | 134 | 28 | .631 |
16 | Johan Santana | 10.0 | 2008 | 2009 | 59 | 59 | 401.0 | 362 | 141 | 124 | 109 | 352 | 2.78 | 149 | 43 | .666 |
17 | Frank Viola | 9.9 | 1989 | 1990 | 71 | 71 | 510.2 | 473 | 198 | 180 | 134 | 393 | 3.17 | 121 | 37 | .649 |
18 | Teddy Higuera | 9.6 | 1988 | 1989 | 53 | 53 | 362.2 | 293 | 122 | 114 | 107 | 283 | 2.83 | 139 | 24 | .601 |
19 | C.J. Wilson | 9.4 | 2010 | 2011 | 67 | 67 | 427.1 | 352 | 172 | 149 | 167 | 376 | 3.14 | 140 | 26 | .637 |
20 | Mark Buehrle | 9.3 | 2008 | 2009 | 67 | 67 | 432.0 | 462 | 203 | 183 | 97 | 245 | 3.81 | 122 | 49 | .751 |
21 | Roy Oswalt | 9.3 | 2007 | 2008 | 65 | 64 | 420.2 | 420 | 169 | 157 | 107 | 319 | 3.36 | 129 | 37 | .700 |
22 | Bronson Arroyo | 9.2 | 2006 | 2007 | 69 | 69 | 451.1 | 454 | 207 | 187 | 127 | 340 | 3.73 | 125 | 59 | .739 |
23 | Derek Lowe | 9.0 | 2002 | 2003 | 65 | 65 | 423.0 | 382 | 178 | 164 | 120 | 237 | 3.49 | 132 | 29 | .653 |
24 | Roy Halladay | 8.9 | 2006 | 2007 | 63 | 63 | 445.1 | 440 | 183 | 171 | 82 | 271 | 3.46 | 131 | 34 | .668 |
25 | Freddy Garcia | 8.8 | 2004 | 2005 | 64 | 64 | 438.0 | 417 | 194 | 187 | 124 | 330 | 3.84 | 119 | 48 | .704 |
Wilson's on there as one of the top pitchers. Most of the rest of these guys continued to have a lot of success after the age of 30. Bob Welch is one who didn't particularly (despite his 27-win season in 1990 that was worth just 2.5 WAR--more on that in a post this weekend.) Nagy was also finished with his good seasons after 30, and Higuera never reached 3 WAR again. Bronson Arroyo hasn't hit 3 again either.
Freddy Garcia hasn't had any really good seasons after Age 30 either, but I noticed a bug in the table above, as the 2004-2005 seasons came before his Age 29 season.
Here are how those same pitchers did in the 2 years that followed, i.e. their Age 31 and Age 32 seasons. Wilson is obviously missing from this list, as is Sabathia (who is the same age).
Rk | Player | WAR | From | To | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Greg Maddux | 13.4 | 1997 | 1998 | 67 | 67 | 483.2 | 401 | 133 | 119 | 65 | 381 | 2.21 | 188 | 22 |
2 | Roy Halladay | 13.3 | 2008 | 2009 | 66 | 65 | 485.0 | 454 | 170 | 150 | 74 | 414 | 2.78 | 155 | 40 |
3 | David Cone | 12.3 | 1994 | 1995 | 53 | 53 | 401.0 | 325 | 155 | 147 | 142 | 323 | 3.30 | 146 | 39 |
4 | Pedro Martinez | 12.2 | 2003 | 2004 | 62 | 62 | 403.2 | 340 | 151 | 140 | 108 | 433 | 3.12 | 153 | 33 |
5 | Cliff Lee | 11.1 | 2010 | 2011 | 60 | 60 | 445.0 | 392 | 150 | 137 | 60 | 423 | 2.77 | 144 | 34 |
6 | Tom Glavine | 10.6 | 1997 | 1998 | 66 | 66 | 469.1 | 399 | 153 | 142 | 153 | 309 | 2.72 | 153 | 33 |
7 | Curt Schilling | 10.5 | 1998 | 1999 | 59 | 59 | 449.0 | 395 | 175 | 168 | 105 | 452 | 3.37 | 135 | 48 |
8 | Randy Johnson | 9.0 | 1995 | 1996 | 44 | 38 | 275.2 | 207 | 92 | 84 | 90 | 379 | 2.74 | 176 | 20 |
9 | Frank Viola | 8.8 | 1991 | 1992 | 70 | 70 | 469.1 | 473 | 211 | 193 | 143 | 253 | 3.70 | 107 | 38 |
10 | Roy Oswalt | 8.2 | 2009 | 2010 | 63 | 62 | 393.0 | 345 | 153 | 148 | 97 | 331 | 3.39 | 119 | 38 |
11 | Roger Clemens | 7.7 | 1994 | 1995 | 47 | 47 | 310.2 | 265 | 132 | 119 | 131 | 300 | 3.45 | 144 | 30 |
12 | John Smoltz | 7.6 | 1998 | 1999 | 55 | 55 | 354.0 | 313 | 128 | 120 | 84 | 329 | 3.05 | 142 | 24 |
13 | Al Leiter | 7.6 | 1997 | 1998 | 55 | 55 | 344.1 | 284 | 133 | 126 | 162 | 306 | 3.29 | 126 | 21 |
14 | Mark Buehrle | 7.2 | 2010 | 2011 | 64 | 64 | 415.2 | 467 | 198 | 182 | 94 | 208 | 3.94 | 109 | 38 |
15 | Bob Welch | 6.0 | 1988 | 1989 | 69 | 69 | 454.1 | 428 | 189 | 169 | 159 | 295 | 3.35 | 113 | 35 |
16 | Bartolo Colon | 5.7 | 2004 | 2005 | 67 | 67 | 431.0 | 430 | 215 | 202 | 114 | 315 | 4.22 | 104 | 64 |
17 | Johan Santana | 4.4 | 2010 | 2010 | 29 | 29 | 199.0 | 179 | 67 | 66 | 55 | 144 | 2.98 | 131 | 16 |
18 | Bronson Arroyo | 3.9 | 2008 | 2009 | 67 | 67 | 420.1 | 433 | 217 | 200 | 133 | 290 | 4.28 | 101 | 60 |
19 | Freddy Garcia | 3.2 | 2006 | 2007 | 44 | 44 | 274.1 | 302 | 155 | 147 | 67 | 185 | 4.82 | 98 | 44 |
20 | Teddy Higuera | 2.5 | 1990 | 1991 | 34 | 33 | 206.1 | 204 | 98 | 89 | 60 | 162 | 3.88 | 101 | 18 |
21 | Orel Hershiser | 2.0 | 1990 | 1991 | 25 | 25 | 137.1 | 138 | 55 | 55 | 36 | 89 | 3.60 | 100 | 4 |
22 | Charles Nagy | 1.5 | 1998 | 1999 | 66 | 65 | 412.1 | 488 | 259 | 233 | 125 | 246 | 5.09 | 96 | 60 |
23 | Derek Lowe | 0.5 | 2004 | 2005 | 68 | 68 | 404.2 | 447 | 251 | 199 | 126 | 251 | 4.43 | 101 | 43 |
So a lot of these guys fell off considerably, but many didn't.
What's more--since Wilson has been a starter only since 2010, he doesn't yet have a lot of pitches on his arm. He's also been really durable the last 2 seasons.
Going forward, then--I feel pretty good about Wilson's future. Like any pitcher, he could break down, but barring major injury, I'd put him down for about 19 WAR over the next 4 seasons.
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