Hint: all 4 players are active and one did it in 2011
Click through for the answers.
| Rk | Player | Year | HR | RBI | H | SB | Age | Tm | G | PA | AB | R | 2B | 3B | BB | SO | CS | Pos | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacoby Ellsbury | 2011 | 32 | 105 | 212 | 39 | 27 | BOS | 158 | 729 | 660 | 119 | 46 | 5 | 52 | 98 | 15 | .321 | .376 | .552 | .928 | *8/D |
| 2 | Vladimir Guerrero | 2002 | 39 | 111 | 206 | 40 | 27 | MON | 161 | 709 | 614 | 106 | 37 | 2 | 84 | 70 | 20 | .336 | .417 | .593 | 1.010 | *9 |
| 3 | Alfonso Soriano | 2002 | 39 | 102 | 209 | 41 | 26 | NYY | 156 | 741 | 696 | 128 | 51 | 2 | 23 | 157 | 13 | .300 | .332 | .547 | .880 | *4/D |
| 4 | Alex Rodriguez | 1998 | 42 | 124 | 213 | 46 | 22 | SEA | 161 | 748 | 686 | 123 | 35 | 5 | 45 | 121 | 13 | .310 | .360 | .560 | .919 | *6/D |
My how times have changed. When Alfonso Soriano did it in 2002, his OPS+ was just 129. This past year, Jacoby Ellsbury posted a 146.
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ReplyDeleteGot three, but sometimes I forget that Alfonso Soriano is an active player.
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ReplyDeleteForgot that Vlad actually thought he was a base-stealer for a few years. Of course, he led the league in CS that year too.
ReplyDeleteI remember doing a little study a long time ago about players who went 30/30, 100/100, 200H, and .300/.400/.500. That list (as of 2010) is:
ReplyDeleteEllis Burks, 1996
Larry Walker, 1997
Vladimir Guerrero, 2002
I would say as far as real value goes I would say Soriano's season was the least valuable because even though he did an excellent job of getting himself in scoring position he made a hell of a lot of outs in doing so plus he played really crappy defense. His leading the league in runs scored that year had as much do with the lineup he was hitting in as anything. Derek Jeter scored only 4 fewer runs yet he had fewer plate appearances, less than half as many extra base hits and stole 9 fewer bases.
ReplyDelete23 walks... 157 whiffs. Soriano wasn't gonna get cheated out of his cuts, was he? He's the evolutionary Juan Samuel.
ReplyDeleteYou almost have to be a very particular type of player on a team that gets you a lot of opportunities. It's interesting that Soriano led the league in plate appearances and outs in 2002, as did A-Rod in 1998. Vlad was first in plate appearances in 2002 (but walked a lot more than the other three), and Ellsbury second in 2011. These guys were constantly out there, putting up counting stats. They didn't necessarily have the highest OPS+, Vlad had only the 9th highest offensive winning percentage, Soriano didn't crack the top ten, A-Rod was 5th, and Ellsbury was 4th.
ReplyDeleteMichael (formerly known as Mike L)
Ellsbury nearly set the record for most RBIs by a leadoff hitter. The record (as far as I can tell) is 100 set by Darin Erstad in 2000. Ellsbury had 105 RBIs in 2011 but only 97 of them came while hitting leadoff.
ReplyDeleteAlthough these are obviously quality seasons, for ARod, it's only his 10th best, according to OPS+.
ReplyDeleteI had Soriano and ARod, but wrongly guessed that Kemp was the guy this year and that Beltran was the fourth.
ReplyDeleteKemp was 5 hits short and Beltran 40 in the season he went 30-35.
None of these gentlemen were exactly Rainesian base-stealers though. Ellsbury and Guerrero were both below the "acceptable" 75% plateau.
ReplyDeleteI guess for Guerrero, it makes some sense...those Expos teams had a tough time scoring runs. Ellsbury got caught a bit too much for a man hitting in front of Pedroia, Gonzalez, Youkilis, and Ortiz.
Thanks, Andy. This inspired me to run a lot of tables today.
ReplyDelete1. The 7 seasons with 200+ hits, 100+ RBI, and a 35+ power-speed number are the four in the topic group plus '63 Aaron, '96 Burks, and '97 Walker.
2. For whatever it's worth, there are exactly 4 seasons in history with 200+ hits, 30+ homers, 100+ RBI, and 7+ WAR Baserunning Runs - and there is no overlap between the topic group and that group. (See http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/NFpZR for the WAR Baserunning for all 200-30-100 seasons. In chronological order, the seasons at the top of the list are '59 Aaron, '63 Aaron, '96 Burks, and '97 Walker. Aaron in '59 was 8-for-8 as a base stealer and must have run the bases well in general.)
I'm always surprised to see a Vladimir Guerrero season leading any group in walks, though I probably shouldn't be.
Hey John, welcome! I understand that what breaks even depends upon run environment, a lower % worth it when offense is lower, but even 70% will get you a net advantage anytime: though there is not significant benefit until around a 3/4 SB%.
ReplyDeleteMike Felber, I always think of you when I hear Mike Felger. Funny to see both names in the same post.
ReplyDeleteMike, I guess the precise numbers depend on which formula you use. Using Tom Ruane's linear weights (published at Retrosheet)I get, for the most recent year Tom ran --2004 -- a break-even point of about 72%. We're all in the same range though.
ReplyDeleteAs with all things, 72% or 75% or 80% assumes things like an average supporting cast.
ReplyDeleteOnce Guerrero reaches base, the gentlemen behind him in the order are guys like Troy O'Leary, Lee Stevens, Fernando Tatis, Michael Barrett, Orlando Cabrera etc.
So, I don't have as much of a problem with him getting caught 1/3 of the time as I do with Ellsbury.
Surprising that out of those 4 seasons, the highest OBP and walks belong to Vlad. Sure, 32 of the 84 BBs were intentional, but 52 unintentional walks were easily his career best.
ReplyDelete@12, 17: Agreed, though 66% is just too low a percentage, I don't really care who you have batting behind you. Brad Wilkerson had a good year, and Troy O'Leary managed a .371 OBP. Lee Stevens and Fernando Tatis were awful that year, though.
ReplyDeleteEllsbury's proclivity for getting thrown out on the bases this year was often left out of MVP discussions. 15 CS, 5 pickoff, plus 10 OOB? Getting thrown out 30 times in front of the guys he was in front of has to be held against him, right? That's compared to Curtis Granderson only being thrown out 15 times on the bases, with similar qualifications.
@5...2 Rockies at the height of the pre-humidor days...they shouldn't count! :)
ReplyDeleteEvery time the Coors Field humidor is mentioned, I feel compelled to note that Coors Field remains by far the most hitter-friendly park in use today.
ReplyDeleteHere are the multi-year Park Factors (Batting) for 2011 that are over 100:
- 117, Colorado
- 111, Texas
- 110, Yankees
- 105, Boston
- 105, Toronto
- 103, Arizona
- 103, White Sox
- 103, Reds
- 103, Milwaukee
- 102, Philly
- 101, Cubs
- 101, Detroit
- 101, Florida
@21, that's a far cry from 130, which was about what Coor's Field gave you in the 1990's.
ReplyDeleteCarlos Gonzalez is a good player who looks great at Coor's.
Dante Bichette was a bad player who looked great at Coor's (check out his WAR in 1995, when he led the league in HR and RBI and finished second in the MVP voting).
@22, John Bowen -- My main point is that there were 35% more runs scored in Colorado’s home games than road games this past year (866 to 643). All teams hit a combined .278 in Coors, .242 in Rockies’ road games. It’s still a fantastic hitter’s park, and has been over the past 3 years.
ReplyDeletePre-humidor Coors Field never once reached a 130 Park Factor. From its 1995 opening through the last pre-humidor season (2001), the one-year Park Factors were 128, 129, 113, 125, 125, 129 and 121, for an average of 124.
The one-year Park Factors post-humidor have been 117, 110, 119, 110, 107, 109, 105, 113, 118 and 116, an average of 112.
I still think the humidor’s effect is overrated by many people, who seem unaware that the Coors numbers have been going up over the last 3 years. I often hear fans and commentators say that Coors Field is now pretty close to neutral; the Wikipedia page on Coors Field goes so far as to say that “the number of home runs at Coors Field … is now nearly the same as other parks,” with an outdated footnote to a outdated 2006 article.
There may have been a year when the HR effect was close to neutral, but for the humidor period as a whole, Coors remains incredibly HR-friendly, with 29% more HRs hit in Rockies home games than road games since 2002 (1,934 to 1,503). And the 29% figure is the same over the last 3 years (554 to 428).
As for the CarGo/Bichette comparison … OK, Dante Bichette probably had the biggest Coors/road split of anyone to play multiple years there. In Bichette’s 5 years in Coors Field, his home marks were .359 BA and 1.041 OPS., while away he had a .273 BA and .736 OPS.
But CarGo also has an extreme split, and his road numbers are none too good. In 3 years with Colorado, his home marks include a .347 BA and 1.057 OPS, while away he has a .271 BA and .777 OPS.
Certainly, Gonzalez is a better hitter and better player than Bichette. My point is that there’s still a huge Coors Field air pocket in his overall numbers, and the average Coors Park Factor during his career was 116. Check out CarGo’s 2010 WAR (5.0, 12th in the NL) and his home/road splits, and tell me he deserved that 3rd-place MVP finish. I remain unsure of how good a hitter CarGo really is in a neutral environment.
@23 JA; thanks for posting the recent park factors on Coors. That said, even though it wasn't so bad before, this is another reason that Larry Walker doesn't make my HOF list. And, again, a certain St. Louis ballpark doesn't rank on the plus side. Wondering if Pujols is tempted by an Arlington ...
ReplyDelete@24: They just put up a statue of Pujols in a suburban St. Louis shopping center. Isn't there something in the MLB labor agreement that prevents a player from leaving after a strip mall statue of him has been dedicated?
ReplyDelete