Verlander had 4.9 Win Probability Added in 2011, a great total. Over the last 3 years, only 3 AL pitchers have racked up more WPA, but one of them was Jered Weaver in 2011, who had 5.2:
Rk | Player | WPA | Year | Tm |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Zack Greinke | 5.830 | 2009 | KCR |
2 | Jered Weaver | 5.209 | 2011 | LAA |
3 | Jonathan Papelbon | 4.976 | 2009 | BOS |
4 | Justin Verlander | 4.919 | 2011 | DET |
5 | Felix Hernandez | 4.840 | 2010 | SEA |
6 | Joakim Soria | 4.542 | 2010 | KCR |
7 | Justin Verlander | 4.359 | 2009 | DET |
8 | Dan Haren | 4.298 | 2011 | LAA |
9 | Rafael Soriano | 4.263 | 2010 | TBR |
10 | James Shields | 4.224 | 2011 | TBR |
Verlander edged Weaver in ERA, 2.40 to 2.41. However, most folks these days put more emphasis on runs allowed, as opposed to earned runs. Weaver allowed just 2 unearned runs; Verlander allowed 6.
Weaver's actual W-L record was 18-8. Verlander's was 24-5 but his neutralized record was 18-8, the same as Weaver's actual record.
Verlander had great run support:
Split | G |
---|---|
0-2 Runs Scored | 6 |
3-5 Runs Scored | 17 |
6+ Runs Scored | 11 |
Weaver had much worse support:
Split | G |
---|---|
0-2 Runs Scored | 13 |
3-5 Runs Scored | 16 |
6+ Runs Scored | 4 |
Verlander had the benefit of a better bullpen behind him, including Jose Valverde, Joaquin Benoit, and Al Alburquerque. Weaver had a weaker bullpen, with a worse closer in Jordan Walden, and only Scott Downs putting together a really good year.
Now, these arguments are pretty much all I can find in favor of Weaver. In pretty much everything else, Verlander blows him (and everyone else) away.
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