We have moved to our new permanent home at HighHeatStats.com!

All existing content will remain, but all new content is posted at our new location.

Did Jered Weaver have a better season than Justin Verlander?

Posted by Andy
Justin Verlander won the AL Cy Young and MVP awards, but one could argue that Jered Weaver had a better year. Now, don't get me wrong--if I had an MVP vote or Cy Young vote, both would have gone to Verlander. What follows is a sort of devil's advocate argument in favor of Weaver.
Verlander had 4.9 Win Probability Added in 2011, a great total. Over the last 3 years, only 3 AL pitchers have racked up more WPA, but one of them was Jered Weaver in 2011, who had 5.2:
Rk Player WPA Year Tm
1 Zack Greinke 5.830 2009 KCR
2 Jered Weaver 5.209 2011 LAA
3 Jonathan Papelbon 4.976 2009 BOS
4 Justin Verlander 4.919 2011 DET
5 Felix Hernandez 4.840 2010 SEA
6 Joakim Soria 4.542 2010 KCR
7 Justin Verlander 4.359 2009 DET
8 Dan Haren 4.298 2011 LAA
9 Rafael Soriano 4.263 2010 TBR
10 James Shields 4.224 2011 TBR
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/21/2011.

Verlander edged Weaver in ERA, 2.40 to 2.41. However, most folks these days put more emphasis on runs allowed, as opposed to earned runs. Weaver allowed just 2 unearned runs; Verlander allowed 6.

Weaver's actual W-L record was 18-8. Verlander's was 24-5 but his neutralized record was 18-8, the same as Weaver's actual record.

Verlander had great run support:

Split G
0-2 Runs Scored 6
3-5 Runs Scored 17
6+ Runs Scored 11
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/21/2011.

Weaver had much worse support:

Split G
0-2 Runs Scored 13
3-5 Runs Scored 16
6+ Runs Scored 4
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/21/2011.

Verlander had the benefit of a better bullpen behind him, including Jose Valverde, Joaquin Benoit, and Al Alburquerque. Weaver had a weaker bullpen, with a worse closer in Jordan Walden, and only Scott Downs putting together a really good year.

Now, these arguments are pretty much all I can find in favor of Weaver. In pretty much everything else, Verlander blows him (and everyone else) away.

No comments:

Post a Comment